The question nobody answers
Which nurseries close?
We took every day nursery on the Ofsted register in December 2021 and followed it to June 2026. Each group below is defined by what was published about the setting at the start, so every figure answers a question a parent could actually have asked at the time.
The rating
By the Ofsted rating it held in 2021
A published rating does carry a signal, and it is not a small one. It is also not decisive: most settings that closed were rated Good, simply because most settings are rated Good.
| Group | Open in Dec 2021 | Closed since | Share that closed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inadequate | 154 | 67 | 43.5% |
| Needs improvement | 215 | 77 | 35.8% |
| Never inspected | 2,797 | 987 | 35.3% |
| Good | 9,060 | 2,504 | 27.6% |
| Outstanding | 2,580 | 510 | 19.8% |
The area
By how deprived the neighbourhood is
Ofsted bands every setting by the deprivation of the area around it. The gap is real but gentler than the sector's rhetoric suggests.
| Group | Open in Dec 2021 | Closed since | Share that closed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Most deprived | 2,681 | 807 | 30.1% |
| Deprived | 2,987 | 844 | 28.3% |
| Average | 3,042 | 849 | 27.9% |
| Less deprived | 3,043 | 835 | 27.4% |
| Least deprived | 3,045 | 808 | 26.5% |
| Unknown | 8 | 2 | 25.0% |
The owner
By how many settings the owner ran
Counted across the whole register in 2021. Mid-sized owners fared worst: too big to be a kitchen-table operation, too small for the buying power of a chain.
| Group | Open in Dec 2021 | Closed since | Share that closed |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 to 4 settings | 3,788 | 1,170 | 30.9% |
| Single setting | 8,050 | 2,227 | 27.7% |
| 20 or more settings | 1,416 | 377 | 26.6% |
| 5 to 19 settings | 1,552 | 371 | 23.9% |
The type
By type of provision
| Group | Open in Dec 2021 | Closed since | Share that closed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Out-of-school day care | 6,680 | 3,353 | 50.2% |
| Home childcarer | 2,564 | 1,067 | 41.6% |
| Sessional day care | 6,063 | 2,497 | 41.2% |
| Full day care | 14,806 | 4,145 | 28.0% |
The map
By region
| Group | Open in Dec 2021 | Closed since | Share that closed |
|---|---|---|---|
| South East | 2,606 | 765 | 29.4% |
| North West | 2,022 | 592 | 29.3% |
| West Midlands | 1,526 | 447 | 29.3% |
| East Midlands | 1,188 | 338 | 28.5% |
| South West | 1,561 | 433 | 27.7% |
| London | 2,609 | 721 | 27.6% |
| Yorkshire and The Humber | 1,272 | 342 | 26.9% |
| North East | 537 | 137 | 25.5% |
| East of England | 1,475 | 368 | 24.9% |
| Not Recorded | 10 | 2 | 20.0% |
Be careful with this
What these numbers cannot tell you
- A setting vanishing from the register is not always a closure. Re-registering after a change of owner or legal entity produces a brand new URN and looks identical in the data.
- Ofsted publishes twice a year, so every date here is only accurate to within six months.
- These are patterns across thousands of settings, not a prediction about any single nursery. A Good nursery near you is not 27.6% closed.